Weekly info 12/21/12

All optimistic outlooks have housing as the primary ingredient, which is true as far as obvious thinking goes. We have all-time low rates and affordability, and the pig of distressed resales is departing the python in tidy bacon slices, not a mass, and slowly. However, in simple math, to get to a higher level of sales and prices will require growth in aggregate mortgage balances. Instead they are shrinking, the Fannie-Freddie conservator standing on that hose. And now the FHA faces an existential battle, to be punished for lending when no one else would, and suffering losses now. When we see the mortgage supply rising, then housing will be able to lead. Then we have the Fed's epic new promise to buy $1 trillion-worth of Treasurys and MBS next year. Some worry that a flood of cash will trigger inflation, or new bubble-buying of stocks, or pigs, or some other damned thing. However, in a recurrent theme looking forward, Fed cash cannot enter the real economy until the financial system uses it to make loans. Not. Until then the best the Fed can do is to hold down rates.

Weekly Info 12/14/2012

The Fed has embarked on QE4, or open-ended, or without end. Whatever. Next year the Fed will buy $1 trillion in Treasurys and MBS, and continue to buy until enough people are back at work, and stop short only if inflation becomes a problem. The buying is designed to keep long-term rates of all kinds low, and thereby revive the economy. Naturally, rates rose since the announcement. Not a lot, the 10-year T-note above 1.70% from lows near 1.58%, and mortgages pushing 3.50%. There is a logic to the rise. Several logics. First the crowd who from the onset of Fed efforts to save us in 2007 have been certain -- certain -- that inflation would follow, and been totally mistaken. Then the mob which believes QE opens the free-money door to "risk assets" -- stocks, gold, and commodities. This time stocks fell, but more because of Cliff crumbling than loss of QE faith. Last a sensible group: if the Fed is trying this hard to revive the economy, it may work. All roads from that thought lead to the same place: for the moment, sell bonds, sell more than the Fed is buying. Thus rates rose.

Weekly Info 12/7/2012

Markets are very quiet despite the usual first-week-of-month flood of new data. In the last week the 10-year T-note has not traded above 1.63% nor below 1.58%, and mortgages are holding just below 3.50% depending on borrower and property. Intermission for Fiscal Cliff. The election has brought order to Republicans, most of whom understand they could have had a better deal in 2011. Speaker Boehner fired two unruly Tea Pots from their committee posts, and Senator Jim DeMint resigned altogether, headed for the Heritage Foundation, where he can screech in its phone booth undisturbed. Mr. Obama has less feel for his tax base and the economy than Mitt Romney for the people, but this time might not overreach his way out of a deal in plain sight. I think chances have reversed two bad weeks and improved now.

Weekly Info 11/30/2012

Global markets have synchronized their trading on the Fiscal Cliff and little else. A positive public statement by anybody, then immediately stocks run up and bonds sell off. A negative slant to an eyebrow, a down-turned lip, no matter how minor the official... stocks tank, buy bonds, rates down. This preoccupation has some merit, but only half. If no deal, and over the cliff we go, Wile E. Coyote in an Acme parachute with no ripcord, the landing will be unpleasant. On the other hand, exuberance at a deal will be fleeting, replaced by awareness that the deal, any deal, will be the beginning of the largest round of tax increases and spending cuts in US history. Just as Mr. Coyote thinks he's caught the Roadrunner, an Acme safe lands on him. Beep-beep.

"Warren Buffett" Says Buy "Real Estate" Now!

Weekly update. 11/02/2012

Now, that's over. Two years of standing around, now down to business. Fast. One piece at a time, stocks first. The sell-off has not been a repudiation of Obama's re-election. It began in Europe and Asia, issues deepening there, not improving. Some certainly sold stocks in fear of higher taxes on capital gains (an extra 3.8% right now, including sellers of homes, courtesy of ObamaCare), and they are right, but that's not nearly as important as weakening global trade undercutting corporate earnings. Housing will benefit from this week’s decisions. Had Romney been elected, Republicans' compulsive hatred of Fannie and Freddie would likely have resulted in premature efforts to shut them down before any private market for mortgages had been revived. There is no telling what clamp would have put on the FHA in exchange for the bailout that it needs for no fault of its own; now it will get what it needs -- and the nation needs

30 Year vs. 20 Year vs. 15 Year Fixed Mortgages Today I want to talk about a refinance trend that we have seen on the rise in recent months. Everybody knows that rates are at historical lows. Many people are refinancing into new 30 year fixed mortgage and lowering their payment as much as possible but there are also a lot of people who are refinancing into shorter term mortgages so they can pay off the debt faster. This month’s article is going to compare the three most common terms of fixed rate mortgages: 30, 20 and 15 years. Please note, all rates contained herein, are not a rate quote and just used for comparison. 30 and 20 year mortgages usually have similar rates and so will my examples. 15 year mortgage typically have a better interest rate than the 20 or 30 year, so that will be used for comparison. We will use a new mortgage amount of $200K and assume that we are at an 80% loan-to- value. If you have a 30 year fixed mortgage at 3.625%, you will have a principal and interest payment (P&I) of $912.10. Over the next 30 years, you will pay $128,356 in interest if you make every scheduled payment on time. While that in itself does seem like a lot, it is substantially less than a good rate in a normal market. At 6.00%, that total interest payment is over $230K. Now a 20 year fixed mortgage is going to have the same interest rate as the 30 year fixed but it will pay off 10 years earlier and save you thousands in total interest payments. The exchange for this savings is a higher monthly payment. In this example, the new monthly principal and interest payment would be $1172.81 or $260.71/month more than the 30 year payment. If you are refinancing out of a 30 year mortgage at 6.00%, you would still see a decline in your monthly payment while still knocking years off your mortgage. At 3.625% on a 20 year fixed, your total interest payments would be $81,473. That is ~63% the total interest for the 30 year fixed or a savings of $46,883. Finally, 15 year fixed mortgages usually have a better interest rate than the 30 and 20 year fixed. In this example, we will use a rate of 3.00%. The principal and interest payment on a $200K mortgage at 3.00% is $1381.16/month. This is $208.35 more per month than the 20 year mortgage and $469.06 more than the 30 year P&I payment but the interest savings are huge. The total interest paid for this 15 year mortgage would be $48,609. That is ~38% of the total interest paid for the 30 year fixed and 60% the total for the 20 year fixed. There are a lot of factors that go into determining what mortgage term is right for you. While the overall cost of a 15 and 20 year fixed mortgage is much less than a 30 year mortgage, it is also a greater monthly commitment. For borrowers who have a lot of additional high rate debt, a 30 year fixed may be a better option so that the other debt can be paid off sooner but the shorter terms would be better for those borrowers who don’t have much other debt and have more flexibility in their monthly expenses. Give us a call today to discuss which option is best for you. The Kunselman Team is always available to talk about your options and how they can help you achieve your goals. The Minimal Down Payment Options for Buying a New Home Did you know you can purchase a new home with little to no money down? In this article, we will examine three of the most popular loans for getting in to a home with the least out of pocket up front; FHA, VA and USDA mortgages. Maybe one of them is just right for you. All of these loans are government insured mortgages so they all have an upfrontmortgage insurance/guarantee fee that can be rolled into your new loan and two of them also have a monthly mortgage insurance/guarantee fee. Because these mortgages are all government insured, rates are similar on all of them. We will use a rate of 3.25% just for comparison purposes. First is FHA. FHA is a very popular type of loan right now. These loans can be used to purchase a 1- 4 unit property, owner occupied without any restrictions to location. The required down payment for an FHA mortgage is 3.50%; so a $200K purchase will require a down payment of $7,000. These can be the borrowers own funds or it can be a gift from a family member. FHA does have a high monthly/annual mortgage insurance premium of 1.25%. The total monthly principal, interest & mortgage insurance payment (PIMI) in this example would be $1059/month. The next mortgage we will look at is the USDA Rural Guarantee Program. This is an income and location restricted program. Income limits are determined by family size and the county the property is located in. Location is restricted to areas deemed rural by the USDA. In our local area, these areas include (but are not limited to) Mead, Frederick, Firestone, Johnstown & Milliken. The USDA program requires NO MONEY DOWN! Like FHA the USDA program does have a monthly mortgage insurance requirement but it is much less at only .40%. In our example, the PIMI payment is $955.82/month. The last mortgage we are going to examine is the VA Guarantee Program. This loan is restricted to borrowers who have had some sort of military service, with some restriction. Like the USDA program, the VA program does not require a down payment. There is an upfront guarantee fee that varies depending on the type of military service but there is no monthly mortgage insurance. For our example, we will assume this is the 1st use of the VA benefit and they are a veteran. This gives a total PIMI payment of $889.13.

Weekly update 11/2/2012

The last economic data to be released before the election has given no advantage to either candidate. We did pick up 171,000 jobs in October, a little better than forecast, and revised up another 84,000 in prior months. However, the average workweek was unchanged for the fourth month in a row, and hourly earnings fell slightly, over the last year rising only 1.6%. "U-6", the measure of unemployment including "involuntary part-time," is still 14.6%. On net a brighter sign than the jobs report: the ISM survey of manufacturing in October crawled 0.2 further into positive ground at 51.7. Markets are flat, I think suppressed more by the election than anything, although stocks are clearly hurt by diminished earnings. Foreign action has also been muted and deferred by our election, especially in Europe.

NOVEMBER NEWSLETTER Colorado’s 2012 Wild Fires

NOVEMBER NEWSLETTER Colorado’s 2012 Wild Fires The devastating wild fires named the “High Park Fire” and the “Waldo Canyon Fire” engulfed hundreds of homes wiping out personal valuables and real property continue to make headlines. Property owners are looking to their homeowner insurance companies for “fair” settlements. Many insured property owners have high expectations and are beginning to realize the reality of insurance settlements: Disappointment is a function of expectation and coverage packages do not always meet an insured’s perceived value. Burn areas sustained varied damage to the natural environment. Structures including 600 plus homes experienced partial damage to total destruction. Claims are being estimated to reach $450 million when considering both fires. The Waldo Canyon fire invaded the city limits of Colorado Springs and destroyed 346 homes while the High Park fire burned 90,000 acres and erased 259 homes. The High Park fire damaged Lory State Park, Horsetooth Mountain Park, Pingree Park, Rist Canyon and the Poudre Canyon and invaded mountain communities with principal residences as well as mountain vacation cabins. The Waldo Canyon fire destroyed homes with a mix of custom homes, patio homes, condos and townhomes with mortgages and manicured landscapes. Now comes the next chapter: the rebuilding of entire subdivisions and developments. Current settlements with private owners may not necessarily meet replacement costs. Current owners, with limited funds, may test the protective covenants which govern the entire subdivision. A huge challenge for an HOA is to protect the value of the entire community and direct the rebuilding with the current covenants. Many property owners fear that neighbors could hire different architects and builders and thus create a mishmash of homes with clashing designs and materials as pointed out in an article dated 7-29-2012 in the Denver Post entitled “Fire and rain.” Neighborhood design review groups may be powerless to enforce the current covenants. One idea being floated is to create a special taxing district which would have greater authority than the HOA to dictate and enforce design guidelines as a community rebuilds as well as exercising the ability to borrow funds in the form of issuing bonds to pay for rebuilding an infrastructure. Remember, city and county governments are often constrained in their ability to provide the necessary infrastructure to supply the services buyers require for home ownership including:  Street improvements  Water facilities and services  Sanitation facilities and services  Park and recreation facilities  Traffic – related safety protection improvements  Transportation facilities and services  Television relay and transmission facilities and services  Mosquito control facilities and services CRS Title 32 provides for the creation of special taxing districts and metropolitan districts to fill the gap between the services a city or county are able to provide and the services residents require or desire. These districts have various financial powers including the power to tax, assess fees and issue tax-exempt bonds to pay for the improvements. The district pays for the bonds by levying a property tax on all property within its boundaries. Many developers in Colorado create special tax districts when they control and own the entire subject property for which the development is to occur. The developer creates a service plan that is either approved by city or county authorities. The builder/developer then follows a petition, election and judicial review process. The special taxing district becomes a financial mechanism for the builder/developer when bonds are issued; thereby, raising the necessary funds to pay for the infrastructure. The ultimate purchasers pay those bonds back in the form of taxes. Once a buyer purchases within a special taxing district, the buyer along with all the other owners become responsible for the debt incurred by the special taxing district. If, in the case of a sale, the purchaser reviews the “certificate of taxes due” and if they desire to perform further due diligence concerning a certain district(s), the Real Estate Commission’s real estate contract recommends contacting the county treasurer, board of county commissioners, the county clerk and recorder or the county assessor. The buyer should also contact with the Division of Local Government (303 866 2156) and order a “profile” of the subject district and then review the information about a district’s debt amount, annual payments, mill levies and services provided. Here are the questions a prudent buyer/owner may also ask:  Who governs the district?  Does the district operate and maintain facilities and improvements?  What are the outstanding amounts remaining to be paid?  How long before the debt is retired?  What authorized but unissued debt remains in the future for the district? A Special District Transparency Information sheet is a good tool of disclosure issued by the district itself listing current board members and officers. Reviewing the board minutes will also give a purchaser an insight into the daily workings of the district. Districts have over the years received additional powers from the Colorado legislature including covenant control and enforcement. Districts are becoming a popular tool for the developer, not only to raise funds and build infrastructure, but to manage and control the development after completion. Dues are paid by the owners to a taxing district, not to an HOA....thereby permitting a further tax deduction for the owners within the district. Existing HOA’s may also take advantage by converting to a special taxing district when existing improvements are to be repaired or replaced or improved. Funds could be raised without incurring huge assessments upon the current owner/members by issuing bonds to be paid back over many years. By Ron Childs

Weekly update: 10/26/2012

Markets seem at last to have noticed the possible range of consequences from the election 10 days hence, and the result is a wide-eyed, jaw-dropped, don't-do-anything. Absent constant paddling, stocks tend to sink, and that's what they've done between frozen days. Bonds tend to glaciate altogether. The 10-year T-note still cannot break 1.85% going upward, and its trading range since August has narrowed bottom-up: from all-time low 1.40% in July to 1.55% in September, now can’t fall below 1.70%. Mortgages are motionless just below 3.50%. Stocks also suffer from poor prospects for earnings. What a surprise. By some estimates nearly two-thirds of S&P500 earnings in the last half-dozen years have come from overseas, rising with global trade volume. As that volume now has flattened (at best), so have earnings. It is fair to say that the US is in better shape than elsewhere, but not enough so to propel earnings.

Weekly Information 10/19/22012

Mortgage interest rates increased on the week as economic data was mostly stronger than expected. Economic reports stronger than expected included September Retail Sales, August Business Inventories, September Industrial Production, September Housing Starts and Building Permits, September Leading Economic Indicators, and the October Philadelphia Fed Business Index. Building permits reached their best level in four years and the October NAHB Housing Index reached a five year high. September Existing Home Sales were down 1.7%, but sales were still up 11% year over year and the median sales price was up 11.3% year over year at $183,900. Employment data, though, was weaker than expected. Weekly jobless claims increased by 46k to 388k claims on expectations of 360k claims. In China, industrial production, retail sales, and fixed-asset investment accelerated in September.

Housing Affordability Soars to Record High

Low mortgage rates and falling home values have brought housing within reach to more families than ever before, according to the latest National Association of REALTORS® housing affordability index.

Housing affordability in January reached its highest level since NAR began tracking it in 1970. The index -- which tracks median home price, median family income, and the average mortgage rate -- reached 206.1 in January.

"This is the first time the housing affordability index has broken the 200 mark, meaning the typical family has roughly double the income needed to purchase a median-priced home," says Moe Veissi, 2012 NAR president. "For buyers who can qualify for a mortgage, now is a very good time to become a home owner."

An index of 100 means that median-income household has exactly enough income to qualify for the purchase of a median-priced existing single-family home, also accounting for a 20 percent down payment and 25 percent of gross income devoted to the mortgage principle and interest payments.

NAR projects that affordability will remain high for the remainder of the year.

"Housing inventory levels have declined to a point where conditions are becoming much more balanced in much of the country," Veissi said. "If access to credit improves, we could see a much more meaningful increase in home sales and broader stabilization in home prices with modest gains in areas with stronger job growth."

Source: National Association of REALTORS®

Cash Buyers Are 'Mopping Up Inventory'

Cash Buyers Are 'Mopping Up Inventory'

New-Home Inventory Shrinks to Record Lows

DAILY REAL ESTATE NEWS | MONDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2012
Inventory of new homes on the market shrank to its lowest point on record in January, marking a 5.6-month supply at the current sales pace, the Commerce Department reports.

With fewer homes available, the price of new homes increased slightly last month. The median price for a new home ticked up slightly at 0.3 percent to $217,100, which is the highest level since October.

However, January sales of single-family homes mostly stayed falt in January, falling less than 1 percent last month compared to the previous month. New-home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 321,000 units.

New-home sales were up 3.5 percent compared to the same time last year, the Commerce Department reported.

"This is indicative of the incremental, steady progress that the market is making toward recovery in conjunction with modest economic and job growth,” said David Crowe, the National Association of Home Builders’ chief economist. “Increasingly, potential buyers are feeling better about their financial situation and their ability to buy a home, but the challenges posed by tight credit conditions and appraisal issues continue to slow that process."

Regionally, the Midwest saw the biggest decline in new home sales in January, a 24.5 percent drop in sales followed by a 10.6 percent drop in sales in the West. On the other hand, the Northeast posted an 11.1 percent gain in new home sales in January, and the South saw a 9.3 percent increase.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

Interest Rates Up, Inventory Down, Rental Vacancy at Ten Year Low

This past week saw reports that for the first time in four months mortgage interest rates are headed up – slightly. Some say this is due to signs that housing sales are percolating upwards. Regardless, a rate increase is not a bad thing. It will likely cause some of those sitting on the fence to get into the market.
What should be of more concern is shrinking inventories. In several markets we have anecdotal evidence from leading brokerage firms that low inventories are starting to impact sales. In one market, Denver, it is reported that as of last week nearly 50 percent of all the listed homes on the MLS are under contract. From every market we hear that most of the action is still in the entry level segment of the market.
It sets up an interesting challenge. With home valuations still heading down what will happen when there are two to three buyers for each of these homes yet they cannot enter into real price competition due to the inability to get the home appraised. This situation would seem to overly favor the all cash buyer, often an investor, who doesn’t worry much about valuations.
Reports also indicated that rental vacancy rates are at a ten year low of 5.2 percent. As the homeownership rate declines more and more families are heading the rental route and right into strongly increasing rental rates. Federal agencies and some private financial institutions are poised to drop more inventory of distressed property into the market and execute programs to turn some of these into rentals. It would be a good time for them to do so.
By Steve Murray

Up 15.2% – January 2012 Longmont Area Sales Stats

There are so many positive things in the January 2012 Longmont Residential Sales Report that I hardly know where to begin. A 15.2% increase over January 2011 is a really good start to the year. Additional gains in both Median and Average Sales Price are nice, but I don’t put too much stock in either of these numbers, especially not with such a small sample. The low number of Active Listings is a really nice way to enter the rush-to-market that happens in March.

There are several other equally nice items sprinkled through out this report. Other numbers aren’t as positive, but there is one thing that I just can’t keep my eyes off. Look at the pretty little trough etched into the bars that make up January sales over the past 6 years. They are all grouped together, decline slightly for four years, then crawl upward ever so slowly. That graphic encapsulates how I see this market over the next several years…having dropped over years and slowly crawl back to life. If February posts number above 47 it will have a similar look to it and I might just become giddy.

Look for the Denver Metro Area Stats and our full Boulder County Residential Stats piece to be posted, along with other locally relevant resources, here by about February 17th.

Weekly Info 02/03/2012

In a double surprise, the job market may at last have begun to revive, but the double-the-forecast, 243,000-job surge in January has done little harm to mortgages. We are still near 4.00%; 10-year T-notes up from 1.82%, but holding nicely at 1.95%. Housing hangs over everything in the US economy, all measures of prices in continuing decline through December. But, to his great credit, Mr. Obama devoted a speech this week to housing, including new proposals. "This housing crisis struck right at the heart of what it means to be middle class in America: our homes." Right! The proposals will be without effect, but that's not Mr. Obama's fault. That two years have passed without proposals or priority or even mention, that is his fault, but give him full praise for saying out loud: "Hey, there's an elephant in this living room!" Why there are no effective proposals, and why it's beyond even the President's power to put them forward is a tale of human nature. We know perfectly well what to do, but several things in ourselves and our political process prevent action.

Weekly Info 01/27/2012

Mortgage interest rates improved this past week on the Fed’s FOMC Announcement. At the conclusion of its FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the Fed announced that they plan to leave the Fed Funds rate at current levels of 0% to 0.25% through the end of 2014, signaling concern regarding the economic recovery. Previously, the Fed had indicated that it planned to leave the Fed Funds rate at current levels through mid-2013. The Fed also cut its forecast for 2012 GDP to a range of +2.2% to +2.7% from its previous forecast of +2.5% to +2.9%. Economic data was mixed. December Pending Home Sales, December New Home Sales, December Leading Economic Indicators, and the advance report on Q4 GDP were weaker than expected. The November FHFA Housing Price Index, December Durable Goods Orders, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index were stronger than expected. The Treasury auctioned $99 billion in 2 Year, 5 Year, and 7 Year Notes, which were met with reasonably strong demand.

Weekly Info 01/20/2012

Mortgage interest rates increased slightly this past week as economic data was generally either better than expected or in line with expectations. Economic reports stronger than expected included the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, the NAHB housing market index, and weekly jobless claims. Weekly jobless claims fell by 50k on expectations that they would fall by 16k. Reports in line with expectations included December Industrial Production, December Capacity Utilization, December Building Permits, and December Existing Home Sales. Inflation data was also in line with expectations. The December Consumer Price Index was up 3.0% year over year and excluding the food and energy components, core CPI was up 2.2% year over year. Also of note, borrowing costs in Italy and Spain were better than expected which put pressure on Treasury yields.

Weekly Info 01/13/2012

The one bright spot in the world is the resilience of the US economy, not re-entering the recession so widely forecast last fall, and so far impervious to events in Europe. A surge in consumer credit (10% annual growth rate in November) may or may not indicate consumer and banking revival, or survive revision, but beats contraction. Consumer confidence numbers are in a sustained rise, sometimes correlating with a better job market. Tempering that enthusiasm, the ballyhooed holiday retail sales did not take place: fibbers on the stock-market channels oversold a mere point-one percent gain in December sales. Small-biz surveyor NFIB found a fourth-straight monthly gain, but shallow- slope, net index no better than last January. On concern for the rest of the world, 10-year T-notes have fallen to 1.85% today, but there is no mortgage follow-through, largely because of the unspeakably stupid mortgage-rate surcharge imposed to pay for part of the Social Security tax cut.

Foreclosures Post Big Drop, Reaching 2007 Levels

Foreclosure filings posted a 33 percent drop in 2011, falling to their lowest levels since 2007, RealtyTrac reports.

During 2011, one in every 69 homes received a foreclosure filing and 804,000 homes were repossessed — compared to 1.05 million homes that were repossessed during the foreclosure crisis peak in 2010, according to RealtyTrac.

Foreclosures have plagued many communities, putting downward pressure on overall home prices. In the past five years, more than 4 million homes have been lost to foreclosure.

So is the worst finally over for the housing market?

Not yet, analysts say. Banks took more time to process foreclosures last year, which explains some of the declines, housing analysts note. In fact, the average process time for a foreclosure rose to 348 days in the fourth quarter, up from 305 days one year prior.

RealtyTrac CEO Brandon Moore says that while he expects foreclosures to increase in 2012, he also expects foreclosures to stay well below the 2010 peak. Refinancing programs, such as the government’s Home Affordable Modification Program, are helping more borrowers lower their payments and avoid foreclosure, Moore says.

Still, the biggest problems with foreclosures remains centered in certain areas, particularly where investors helped drive up home prices during the housing boom. For example, Nevada remains the No. 1 foreclosure hot-spot, in which one out of every 16 households received some kind of default notice during 2011. Arizona and California also are continuing to face some of the highest foreclosure rates in the country too, according to RealtyTrac data.

Commentary 1/6/2012

It is an election year. In addition to the distorted economic "analysis" offered by the ever-cheerful stock-market channels, CNBC and Bloomberg, all year long this year political interests will add their garbled gabble. Today's reports of 200,000 new jobs in December and unemployment down from 8.7% to 8.5% were greeted with happy bugles from the usual suspects. Ignore that and watch the markets themselves. Interest rates rise on legitimate good news; today's 10-year T-note yield has fallen to 1.94%, and mortgages are near 4.00% again. The stock market rises on good news, and today it is flat to down. 200,000 jobs is good news, but year-over-year earnings have risen only 2.1%. A few back to work, but not the job that it was. And even if employment growth persists at that level, and new unemployment claims stay down as they were in December from 400,000 weekly, it's not enough to dent the job losses since 2007.