Weekly Info 2/8/2013

Long-term rates slid back a bit this week, the 10-year T-note holding 2.00%, mortgages near 3.75%, higher than 2012 second-half, but nothing dramatic. It was a thin week for data, but two reports were startling. First, the US trade deficit in December arrived 20% lower than forecast because of a surge in exports of… oil. Second, consumer credit continued its rise: a $15.9 billion jump in November, and $14.6 billion in December. The usual suspects have seized on this run as a sign of normal, cyclical recovery ahead, and it is not. The only two components growing: student loans and car paper, one crushing the next generation, the other available only because it's the only consumer collateral that's easy to repossess. All other categories of consumer credit are falling, from credit cards to mortgages. February 8, 2013 PRODUCT 0 pts w/pts 30 Yr Fixed 3.75% 3.5% +1.125pt FHA 30 Yr Fixed 3.25% n/a 5 Yr ARM 2.75% 2.5% +.6pt 7 Yr ARM 2.875% 2.625% +.7pt 5 Yr Jumbo ARM* (purchase loans) 2.75% 2.5% +1pt 7 Yr Jumbo ARM* 3.0% 2.75% +1.1pt